Jul 24, 2026
Winners Losers and Survivors: Which One Are You in This Recession?
Chandler Brown's dad likes to say that recessions create three kinds of people. Winners. Losers. And survivors. And the survivors have the longest staying power of all.
In this episode of Lessons the Hard Way, Sam sits down with Chandler Brown of GREA, a national multifamily brokerage platform with seven brokers in the Atlanta office, including Chandler's two brothers. Chandler started in 2009, the day after D-Day as he puts it, while his brother Taylor started in 2007 and landed on the beaches of Normandy. Between the family history, two decades of cycles, and some of the sharpest market frameworks in the conversation, this is one of the most content-dense episodes the show has produced.
In this episode:
• Winners, losers, and survivors: his dad's recession framework and why survivors win long-term
• Normandy vs. D-Day: starting in 2007 vs. 2009 and what each brother walked into
• Innovators and imitators: the buyer cycle that plays out the same way every recession
• 100 no's to get a maybe: perseverance, product knowledge, and the mindset that carries you through
• Every deal has to die three times before it gets made — and what to do each time it does
• No deal is ever worth a relationship: the old school truth that still runs the business
• The five stages of grief for a real estate cycle: denial, anger, negotiation, depression, acceptance — mapped onto brokers, then owners, then lenders, then equity in sequence
• What Chandler looks for when underwriting in today's market
• Equity is a coward and it runs from opportunity — why now is the time to move
• Buying below basis without needing 2022 pricing to return
• The frothy market alarm: how Chandler will know when to sharpen his lens again
• Surround yourself with people smarter than you with different skill sets
• People is still the answer — management, capital, and AI all come back to people
Subscribe for weekly episodes. New deal autopsies and hard lessons every week.
Connect with Chandler Brown and GREA: grea.com/team/chandler-brown
Two Waters Capital: 2waterscapital.com
#lessonsthehardway #twowaterscapital #realestatepodcast #multifamilyinvesting #realestatecycles #commercialrealestate #accreditedinvestor #distressedrealestate #chandlerbrown #realestatelessons
0:00 Winners, losers, and survivors — his dad's recession framework
1:02 Welcome: introducing Chandler Brown of GREA
1:17 Dad started in 1975: forty years, forty-five years, seven recessions
3:07 Three recessions Chandler has seen: GFC, COVID, 2022 to now
3:35 Survivors have the longest staying power
5:32 Normandy vs. D-Day: Taylor started in 2007, Chandler in 2009
5:56 Innovators and imitators: the buyer cycle after every downturn
7:24 First met Brian Sutton in 2015: the right timing and the right fundamentals
7:50 100 no's to get a maybe: product knowledge and perseverance
9:24 The suffering creates the tougher mindset
11:09 Every deal has to die three times before it gets made
12:08 Start from scratch when you have to — but keep going
13:13 No deal is worth a relationship: the old school truth
14:55 Being honest about where we are in the market
15:28 The five stages of grief: denial, anger, negotiation, depression, acceptance
15:52 Brokers felt it first, then owners, then lenders, then equity
16:54 The best operators navigating legacy deals while buying new
18:34 How to underwrite properties in today's market
20:44 Walking distressed sellers through the grief process
24:39 What Chandler loves about multifamily
27:02 Reinventing yourself after the bad times: determination and patience
29:12 Post-COVID unknowns and questioning everything with fresh eyes
31:05 The frothy market alarm: how will you know when the music stops
31:32 It starts with management data and what renters are telling you
33:48 Equity is a coward — it runs from opportunity right now
34:46 Buying deals with no rent growth and no appreciation — what that means for upside
36:53 Two Waters goals: fund structure, conservative underwriting, buying below basis
40:44 Closing: appreciation and what is ahead
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